NFL Week 14 Bets
2020 NFL Season Totals
Picking NFL Game Winners Straight up: 131–59–1, 68.95%, 99th percentile (ESPN registered)
Picking NFL Game Spreads(ESPN): 106–85–0, 55.5%, 98th percentile (ESPN registered)
Printed NFL Game Spread Picks: 38–29–2, 56.72%
NFL Teaser Bets: 12–8–1, 60.00%, *1 pending
NFL Game Totals: 16–10–0, 61.54%
NFL Money Lines: 13–12–0, 52.00%
Week 14 Teaser Legs
Baltimore being taken from -8 down to -2 (vs. DAL)
*Tuesday night Week 13 game
This should be a get-right spot for Baltimore at home against an atrocious Dallas defense. Baltimore was never a Super Bowl contender, but they beat up on bad teams well.
Green Bay being taken from -7.5 down to -1.5 (at DET)
The Packers are still playing for the coveted number 1 seed in the NFC and Green Bay has historically had their way with the Lions.
Tennessee being taken from -7.5 down to -1.5 or PK (at JAC)
As admirable as Jacksonville’s effort has been over the past month of the regular season, the Titans are a far more talented team looking to bounce back from week 13’s loss to Cleveland.
Kansas City being taken from -7 down to -1 (at MIA)
This does feel like it has trap-game potential for the Chiefs, but I’ll always back Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid in a pick-the-winner situation.
Tampa Bay being taken from -6.5 down to a PK (vs. MIN)
This game scares me a bit for Tampa Bay because the Bucs’ offense has been out of rhythm for much of the season, but the Buccaneers are at home, are coming off of a bye, and have a ridiculous mismatch on paper against a poor Minnesota secondary.
New England being taken from +6 up to +12.5 (at LAR)
The Patriots have been a tricky team to follow this season, but they have looked much better as of lately and we’ve seen Jared Goff struggle mightily with Bill Belichick — styled defenses over the course of his career.
Pittsburgh being taken from +1.5 up to +8.5 (at BUF)
I think that Buffalo has a decent chance at winning this game out-right, but I trust the Steelers to keep it within one score.
So, including tonight’s Baltimore-Dallas game, I’ve recommended 7 teaser legs which comes out to 21 teaser combinations. Many of these combinations will feature 7 point adjustments at a -125 price. Week 14 looks to be a profitable teaser week.
Week 14 Spread & Money Line Picks
Patriots +6 & +220 money line (at LAR)
The Patriots were impressive last week and have found ways to win without generating a lot of offense. I trust that Bill Belichick will confuse and exploit Rams’ quarterback Jared Goff the way he did in the Super Bowl two years ago. Also, the Rams’ greatest defensive advantage is their secondary, but New England limits their wide receiver and tight end usage offensively. Lastly, Thursday night games favor elite coaches and the Patriots will likely not travel having just played in Los Angeles week 13 against the Chargers.
Houston -1 (at CHI)
I just like DeShaun Watson against Mitchell Trubisky in essentially a pick-the-winner situation.
Eagles +255 Money Line (vs. NO)
This game, for me, is worth a sprinkle because of the Jalen Hurts factor. The Eagles have been plucky at times this year (against Baltimore and Pittsburgh), and I’ll bet on the variance of two unproven but high-upside quarterbacks dueling.
Week 14 NFL Game Totals
Tennessee — Jacksonville Over 53 points
Titans’ games’ overs have hit at a very profitable rate since Ryan Tannehill took over as the starting QB in the middle of the 2019 season. Both of the defenses involved in this game are well below average and both Tennessee and Jacksonville have been good offensively as of late.
Patriots — Rams Under 45 points
This has all of the makings of an under game: projected poor quarterback play on both sides, well above average defensive units, and a lack of preparation due to it being a Thursday night game. For this game to go over, something uncommon like a defensive or special teams touchdown would probably have to occur.
Houston — Chicago Over 44.5 points
Surprisingly, the Bears’ offense has moved the ball well over the past two games and now they’ll play an atrocious Texans’ defense, which doesn’t have its number one corner Bradley Roby. On the other side, I trust DeShaun Watson to exploit a Bears’ defense that has gotten worse as the season has progressed.
Green Bay — Detroit Under 55 points
This number just feels too high, especially considering that there’s no guarantee that Lions’ star receiver Kenny Golladay plays. Even if Golladay is in, though, 55 points is the upper distribution of game totals and I am surprised that this game qualifies for that number.